Perhaps the Least-Known, but Most Important Election Result

California's statewide ballot initiative Proposition 23 to delay and curb implementation of the 2006-passed AB 32, California carbon emission cap-and-trade mandate failed last night by nearly a 2-1 margin. Early polling had many believing the prop had a chance to pass driving over $30 mil in environmentalist funds for ads and an opposition campaign into the state. Prop 23's failure greenlights the continued advancement of the California Air Resources Board's implementation of the state's cap-and-trade system and early action measures such as the recently completed Refrigerant Management Regulations, and the pursuit of California-specific commercial refrigeration standards.

It remains to be seen how this will play out, but California- with its ailing economy- may become the country's petri dish to definitively determine the economic impact of economy-wide caps on carbon emissions.

Is There a Climate Change Policy Backlash?

This Politico piece outlines a potential rift within the environmental community of what to do next now that any serious climate change legislation appears to be a non-started for the foreseeable future. The story ends with this quote, “At this point, there’s going to be a rebellion,” said Sen. Dick Lugar (R-Ind.). “EPA is likely to see its powers substantially curtailed.”

EPA Authority to Regulate GHGs Remains Under Attack

Despite initial defeat in the Senate earlier this year to pass a resolution prohibiting the EPA from regulating greenhouse gases, opposition to EPA's perceived authority to regulate these gases after the 2009 Supreme Court decision declaring greenhouse gases as pollutants is mounting. Success of this opposition would prevent the EPA from writing new regulations intended to curb greenhouse gas emissions, potentially including the use of hydro carbon refrigerants.

GM First to Announce HFO-1234yf Plans

Thanks to member CD Jones for forwarding: GM vehicles will use low-GWP alternative refrigerant, HFO-1234yf in most US vehicles starting in 2013. Here's the full release.

Opposition to Climate Change Legislation is Apparently All Semantics

“Cap and trade has certainly been demonized,” said Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.). “I think that’s unfortunate. ... So we’ll just call it something different.”

This Politico piece describes the belief by many climate change legislation proponents that today's strong opposition to the concept of economy-wide emission controls is based largely on misunderstanding and mischaracterizations of the Lieberman-Warner, Waxman-Markey, Kerry-Lieberman -like "cap-and-trade" proposals.

Votes Appearing Hard to Come By for Climate Legislation

Moderate Democrats (even those not facing elections this year) seem reluctant at best to swallow yet another monster bill, this time intended to cap carbon emissions. Regardless of these political headwinds, the debates will still take place this year, but might be most likely to lead to a splintering into several smaller bills, all or some with a climate provision. Of most importance to our industry will be the fate of an HFC phasedown (yes, those same refrigerants we haven't even transitioned to yet). If such a phasedown is to be discussed it better 1) provide flexibility in case alternatives aren't readily available 2) apply only to producers and importers of refrigerants and 3) not have a price-inflating auction as part of it.

Rhetoric Will Not Pass a Climate/Energy Bill This Year

Despite tough talk from the Administration and Senator Reid about a commitment to passing "comprehensive climate legislation" after the July 4 recess, political realities are fighting back hard as outlined in this Politico piece. While a lean, energy-only bill could almost certainly pass when the Senate reconvenes, it seems inevitable that leadership will be unable to keep themselves from loading it down with controversial oil-related or carbon policies which seem highly likely to submarine any bill regardless of what it's attached to.

Senate Dems Reenergized on Climate Legislation

This NYT article captures the energy of a reinvigorated Democratic Senate caucus now seemingly determined to bring comprehensive climate/energy legislation to the chamber's floor this summer. While the enthusiasm might be there, there is little certainty that the necessary support from within their own party is politically feasible. How exactly do you craft legislation that punishes oil companies while still enabling them to prop up the local economies of so many coastal states?

Ballot Initiative to Suspend CA's Global Warming Law Added

A measure that would suspend AB 32, California’s landmark 2006 climate law, has qualified for the November ballot. The “California Jobs Initiative” secured more than 800,000 signatures, nearly twice as many needed to bring the measure before voters. If passed, it would halt enforcement of AB 32 until unemployment in the state, now over 12%, drops to 5.5% for at least a year. Under AB 32, California is setting limits on greenhouse gas emissions from automobiles, oil refineries and other industries, and will probably require that a third of the state’s electricity come from renewable sources by 2020. Supporters say it has spurred a large market for solar, wind and other clean energy sources. But backers of the ballot measure, whose six-month, $3 million campaign was largely funded by Texas oil giants Valero Energy Inc. and Tesoro Corp., who both operate refineries in California, describe the climate law as an “energy tax” that slows job growth and burdens consumers.

Gridlock, Deficits, and an Election Year

I spent much of last week on policy issues trying to poke holes in my own assertions that Washington has all but shut down already for the rest of the year as it pertains to major legislation such as energy/climate, financial reform, and tax policy. Unfortunately I'm now back in Columbus with little evidence to the contrary. Today's piece in The Politico reinforces the Senate's lack of appitite for any more monster initiatives and spending. The key challenge is that there are plenty of smaller, inexpensive or non-spending measure bills out there that could pass, but leadership's insistence on packaging these items into massive, monster-bills with ever-ballooning price tags seems likely to submarine several good ideas. All that being said, I also left D.C. wary of what we might see come up during the Senate's "lame-duck" session after the November elections. These are always unpredictable sessions, and there could be several key Senators no longer with constituencies to worry about pleasing with these votes.

More on Last Night's Speech and Future Energy Policy

The Politico published this excellent collection of commentary and projections from the President's speech last night. Most notably, the piece reports that the White House is instructing the Senate to bring a comprehensive energy/climate bill up in mid-July with the intention of passing it during a lame-duck session after the November elections. Doesn't strike me as the most sound means of enacting potentially one of the most sweeping policy reforms in U.S. history. I can hear the battle cries of repeal already.

Energy Policy Outlook Less Clear Post Oil Spill

The President's speech last night was intended to do two things. First, demonstrate the administration's commitment to addressing and solving the oil spill crisis. Second, tee up the debate for comprehensive energy policy reform. Frankly, questions about both still remain. Whether it be cap-and-trade or a national carbon tax, any energy policy reform with either of these provisions would still appear to be "dead on arrival" in the Senate. Pressure from the Left to cease all oil drilling and exploration considered amped by the BP oil disaster is easily offset by the obvious economic impact of such policy. One must wonder what "comprehensive energy reform" could look like that would attempt to disadvantage domestic oil production while at the same time taking steps to draw in moderates' and coastal state Senators whose constituents are heavily reliant on an oil drilling economy. Further, the US Chamber does a nice job of outlining the long term security risks of an overly aggressive, oil-less energy policy.

Senate Fails to Pass Limits on EPA Emissions Authority

Sen. Lisa Murkowski's "Resolution of Disapproval" intended to strip the US EPA's authority to regulate carbon emissions failed this afternoon by a 53-47 vote. This article from earlier today outlined the potential implications of today's vote, and even the significant effects of just getting close to the 51 votes needed to pass.

Chances of Federal Energy Efficiency Spending Shrinking

Political will even among rank-and-file House Democrats to support new spending measures is waning. This raises serious concerns that energy efficiency proposals such as Home Star, Building Star, or extension of the 25c tax credits will make any progress in 2010.

41 Senate Co-Sponsors Poised to Block EPA Carbon Reg Authority

41 Senators, including four Democrats are preparing to advance Sen. Murkowski's disapproval resolution blocking the EPA from regulating carbon emissions after the Memorial Day recess.

HARDI Supports CARB Findings on Refrigerant Cylinders

Too expensive for not enough emission savings. That's what a study commissioned by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) to study the emission reduction potential by banning the use of non-refillable 30lb refrigerant cylinders concluded. HARDI agreed in principle, but argued that the cost estimates of such regulation were actually understated and argued that evidence is mounting that the existing market can deliver emission savings through enhanced refrigerant management awareness.

Yet Another Unintended Consequence of Climate Policy

California's Assembly passed a bill that would prohibit the states' public utilities from purchasing energy from out-of-state producers that don't meet California's strict new emission caps.

Last I heard, energy was expensive enough in California so I'm curious to see how the struggling state plans to turn around its economy if there is the outlook is for ever-rising energy costs.

Administration's "Spring Offensive" Could Keep HARDI Busy

Aides to President Obama outlined to The Politico a bold and aggressive political agenda for the rest of 2010 that could dominate the attention and concerns of HARDI and all other industry businesses. Take a look at the article then start clearing your calendar to be part of our 2010 Congressional Fly-In...

The Unintended Consequences of RPS

Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), or requirements for states (or perhaps countries) to meet their energy needs through a set percentage of renewable sources, were very chic not too long ago when it was "inevitable" that the US would pass a comprehensive climate change bill. While much of that luster is gone, state support for RPS mandates is not and here's just one example of how a 50,000 ft great idea can quickly translate into a serious local issue.

Not Just "R's" Opposing EPA Carbon Regulations

Heaven forbid members from different parties actually publicly agree on anything these days, but the introduction of Democrats' legislation curtailing EPA authority to regulate greenhouse gases is still significant progress.